Iran could make the bomb within 10 months: experts
Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh attends the UN atomic agency members meeting in Vienna in September 2012. Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make an atomic bomb within two to four months and then would need an additional eight to 10 months to build the device, experts said Monday.
AFP - Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make an atomic bomb within two to four months and then would need an additional eight to 10 months to build the device, experts said Monday.
The authors of a new report on Iran's nuclear program say Tehran has made progress in its uranium enrichment effort but that the United States and UN weapons inspectors would be able to detect any attempt at a "breakout" -- at least for the moment.
The report, released by the Institute for Science and International Security, offers estimates on uranium stockpiles and enrichment rates based on figures from inspections of Iran's program by the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
To amass the 25 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium needed for one nuclear weapon, Iran "would require at least 2-4 months," the report.
To reach that goal, Iran would have to draw on its uranium enriched to 3.5 percent as well as stocks of 20 percent enriched uranium, it said.
The report appears roughly in line with the US government's view that once Iran made a decision to make a bomb, Tehran could be months away from generating sufficient amounts of weapons-grade material and then additional months would be required to construct a device.
The findings confirm comments made to AFP last month by one of the authors, David Albright, a leading expert on Iran's nuclear project.
Once Iran had generated enough highly-enriched uranium, it could take about eight to 10 months to construct a nuclear weapon, Albright told AFP on Monday.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on September 11 that the United States would have about a year to take action if Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon.
The time needed for Iran to quit the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and "dash" or "break out" to make the bomb would give the United States and its allies time to react if necessary, the report said.
"Although Iran's breakout times are shortening, an Iranian breakout in the next year could not escape detection by the IAEA or the United States.
"Furthermore, the United States and its allies maintain the ability to respond forcefully to any Iranian decision to break out. During the next year or so, breakout times at Natanz and Fordow (facilities) appear long enough to make an Iranian decision to break out risky," it said.
But as Iran's supply of 20 percent enriched uranium increases, the time needed to produce enough material for a bomb or bombs will decrease, it said.
Iran's expanding network of centrifuges could make it increasingly difficult for inspectors to spot Tehran's progress, it said.
Despite repeated accusations from Western countries and critical findings from UN inspectors, Iran insists its nuclear program is designed purely for peaceful purposes.
The United States is under pressure from Israel to set a precise deadline for action but prefers for now to pursue a course of ever tighter sanctions to try to force Tehran to the negotiating table.
Iran denies it is seeking atomic weapons, maintaining that its nuclear program is for civilian energy purposes(sara kane)
The authors of a new report on Iran's nuclear program say Tehran has made progress in its uranium enrichment effort but that the United States and UN weapons inspectors would be able to detect any attempt at a "breakout" -- at least for the moment.
The report, released by the Institute for Science and International Security, offers estimates on uranium stockpiles and enrichment rates based on figures from inspections of Iran's program by the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
To amass the 25 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium needed for one nuclear weapon, Iran "would require at least 2-4 months," the report.
To reach that goal, Iran would have to draw on its uranium enriched to 3.5 percent as well as stocks of 20 percent enriched uranium, it said.
The report appears roughly in line with the US government's view that once Iran made a decision to make a bomb, Tehran could be months away from generating sufficient amounts of weapons-grade material and then additional months would be required to construct a device.
The findings confirm comments made to AFP last month by one of the authors, David Albright, a leading expert on Iran's nuclear project.
Once Iran had generated enough highly-enriched uranium, it could take about eight to 10 months to construct a nuclear weapon, Albright told AFP on Monday.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on September 11 that the United States would have about a year to take action if Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon.
The time needed for Iran to quit the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and "dash" or "break out" to make the bomb would give the United States and its allies time to react if necessary, the report said.
"Although Iran's breakout times are shortening, an Iranian breakout in the next year could not escape detection by the IAEA or the United States.
"Furthermore, the United States and its allies maintain the ability to respond forcefully to any Iranian decision to break out. During the next year or so, breakout times at Natanz and Fordow (facilities) appear long enough to make an Iranian decision to break out risky," it said.
But as Iran's supply of 20 percent enriched uranium increases, the time needed to produce enough material for a bomb or bombs will decrease, it said.
Iran's expanding network of centrifuges could make it increasingly difficult for inspectors to spot Tehran's progress, it said.
Despite repeated accusations from Western countries and critical findings from UN inspectors, Iran insists its nuclear program is designed purely for peaceful purposes.
The United States is under pressure from Israel to set a precise deadline for action but prefers for now to pursue a course of ever tighter sanctions to try to force Tehran to the negotiating table.
Iran denies it is seeking atomic weapons, maintaining that its nuclear program is for civilian energy purposes(sara kane)
I can understand why Israel wants the US to intervene and take action towards Iran.I dont think we should wait any longer.Israel is our ally and we need to help them. Anymore conflict in the Middle East would make things worse.We should do everything we can to stop Iran from getting this nuclear program.
ReplyDelete-Matthew Cypher
I don't see the point in the United States stalling for "negotiations." There's really nothing to negotiate. They want atomic weapons, we don't want them to have them. End of story. Us delaying is just irritating Israel and encouraging Iran. If we're going to stop them anyway, why not do it sooner rather than later? I wonder if this will be a hot topic in the foreign policy debate between Romney and Obama. It should be interesting. -Mae Markowski
ReplyDeleteThe US does hold all the cards in this situation. Iran won't attack Israel because they know we will retaliate. Israel won't attack Iran until we give them permission. Until we take a side, this is all talk for now. -Alex Canan
ReplyDeleteWhile it seems like we have all the time in the world to react to this growing problem, since no one will attack in fear of being crushed by the US and there's at least 10 months until any potential missiles could be made, it's still a scary thing to think about. I'm really frightened for Israel and other enemies of Iran close to it. Whether they are building nuclear power for war or energy, it's still going to give even more heat and attention to that area; attention that they probably don't want to touch with a 20 foot pole.
ReplyDelete-Emma H.
I agree with Alex, that it is very unlikely that Iran would use an atomic weapon due to the leverage the United States has over them. But at the same time irrational military actions have occurred throughout history and it's still very possible Iran would bite the bullet and just do it. So I think we should keep very a close eye on Iran and make sure they never get the chance to create the atomic weapons.
ReplyDelete-T. Griffin