OVER the past two years Indian officials have excelled at predicting with magnificent conviction that an economic recovery would happen in the next quarter, always the next quarter. As things steadily got worse, culminating in a currency scare that lasted from June through August, their credibility slumped in tandem with India’s growth rates. But now there is something to cheer about. Three pieces of data over the past week suggest that economic growth has bottomed out at the 4-5% range and that a precarious balance-of-payments position is improving sharply. Optimists will argue that the stage is set for a sharp recovery in Asia’s third-biggest economy—if the country elects a more coherent government, in elections due by May.